INTRODUCTION TO WEBINAR
This conversation is based on the article published by Ian Moncrieff, “Base oil, base oil everywhere, nor any drop to buy” - The curious case of how coronavirus created a lubrication crisis.
The article starts with reminding us about the history of base oils and specifically the dramatic change that has happen in base oil capacity over the last 20 years due to the growth in high-performance lubricants. Group I has gone from almost 75% of total Base oil capacity to around 30% conversely Group II and III base oils have quadrupled their share.
The following questions, along other issues,
were discussed during the webinar:
|What has been some of the side effects of the change described in the article?|
|Could this relatively rapid rebound in base oil demand be a contributing cause for
the price explosion which has occurred over the past nine months?
|Is there any sign that the base oil supply crisis may be nearing an end?|
|What’s the worst case, and is COVID the only cause of that worst case?|
|What changes would continuing high base oil prices cause to refinery operations and to lube marketers?|
|In a post-COVID-19 world, do we see the base oils industry returning back to very poor margins (like in 2019) as refiners chase volume in an oversupplied market? Or do we see refiners chasing after value, given what they've experienced through COVID? Is a commodity always a commodity, even after COVID-19?|
What is the outlook for re-refiners? Do you believe that the market could expand beyond where it is now?
Independent consultants, consulting firms, and market research companies will not be permitted.
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